Analysis of Ch445 and Ch446 by 蜡笔大大大象

The user who did and analysis of Ch444 in tieba did another analysis of chapter Ch445 and Ch446. It seems like he will be doing this for every chapter and you guys are in for a treat. I will be translating it as usual so here we go.

Original text will be in block quotes and the translation will be right below it.

Orignal thread by 蜡笔大大大象: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/4047352843

Translated by: King Magax

第445,,446话的一些想法,权当看看,不足请指教。

Some thoughts of Chapters 445 and 446. This is purely for leisure reading. If there are anything that isnt up to standard, do feel free to point out.

从分镜与旁白来看,桓骑看到了狼烟信号,知道了信—未完成急行军的作战方略。
什么方略?
就是快速进军,尽可能的纵深中央山丘更靠前的地方,筑起防线,使敌军无法前进。
为何能大致了解信的失误呢?
楼主站在旁观者角度进行解析,也许如果楼主是信,当面对如此情况,不可能完全能够缓过神来看出这些破绽。

桓骑是擅长密林作战的,密林作战讲究隐秘,无所踪迹。
右翼的山丘属于桓骑军附近的位置,相反的,对于赵军来说,是最最靠前的前线,如此纵深到桓骑军势力范围中,庆舍的主力大军是不可能完全集结在此的。
但是有谁会在刚刚占领山丘而未等主力部队集结增援的时候,就迫不及待的升起狼烟了呢?
这岂不是是告诉恒骑大军,这里有我们在此,快来打我们啊。
这不是送死的概念吗。
按照普通作战的想法,一般占领山丘先不急于释放信号,必定需要增援集结才能大张旗鼓的与敌军交战。
所以,这个狼烟根据兵法虚虚实实,在桓骑以天赋和经验判断,极有可能是诱敌之计。故意延缓信的进军速度。

From the split scene and the narration at the side of the page, we can deduce that Kanki knows that Shin has failed his mission of blitzkrieg.
So what is this tactic about?
It is to move as fast as possible, moving past the central hill and build a defensive line there to stop the advancement of the enemy troops.
Why do we know that Shin failed?
Well I am analyzing as someone who is looking from the outside. If im putting myself in Shin’s shoes, I might not realize the trick too.

Kanki is an expert in fighting in the woods and fighting in the woods requires stealth.
The hill at the right wing is closer to Kanki’s position and to the Zhaos, it is the nearest to the front lines. By going so deep into Kanki’s territory, it is impossible for Keisha’s main army to gather here.
Who the hell will light a smoke signal right after capturing a hill before their arrival of the main army?
Isn’t that telling the enemy:”Hey, here we are, please come and attack us.”
Isn’t that asking for their own death?
Under normal circumstances, when a hill is captured, there would not be any signal until reinforcements arrive so they can fight the enemies.
Therefore, this smoke signal is a decoy and with Kanki’s talents and experience, it is definitely a tactic to lure the enemies in to slow down the speed of Shin’s advancement.

庆舍与纪慧交谈,反复强调“在这黑羊”一词

两个经验包的分镜都在反复提到“在黑羊”

楼主在444话分析中已经提到过。
那赵国为何也选择这个地点作为攻略之地呢。
并且反复提到“土著”一词
何为土著?
土著就是一个地方的原住民,这里人对自己生活的区域,一草一木,一河一溪都是了如指掌。
很多战争,战斗双方往往需要抓当地居民作为带路人,就是因为地形复杂,唯有当地人能够辨识清楚。

黑羊
是城主纪慧的熟悉的地方,这个地点是纪慧的管辖范围,
林海的地形作为当地土著城主纪慧自然之道其地形的要害,这是他的优势。
密林作战的最最最关键还是对于地形情况的了解。通过对地形的熟悉,能够让对手处于被动挨打的状态。
而城主和两个经验包,都是土著,对于黑羊的地形肯定了如指掌。这是现在他们的优势。所以对于地形的熟悉,加上两个经验包的小有水平,就不存在庆舍的副将提到的“赌博”一说,因为一切尽在掌握。

如图,楼主的蓝色标记,便是这类信所不熟悉的支流的可能。
这条之流直通恒骑军的势力范围,深入敌后。

1st panel: During the conversation between Keisha and Kisui, the phrase “here in BSH(Black Sheep Hill)” keeps appaearing.
2nd panel: “The other extras kept mentioning BSH in the other panels.
3rd panel: I’ve mentioned in my analysis in Ch444 on why Zhao chose this location for the battle. They also kept mentioning the “natives”.
Why the natives?
Natives refer to the people who are born and bred in that place. They understand everything about the area that they live in.

In many wars, natives are hired by both sides to guide them through the complicated terrain that only the natives understand.

BSH
This is where Kisui is familiar with as it is part of the territory under his control.
Kisui understands the complicated terrain here and that is his advantage.
In a battle within a thick forest, the key to winning is mastering the terrain. By understanding the terrain, it will put the enemies in a passive state.
Kisui and his 2 extras(probably referring to Batei and Ryuutou) are natives are natives to the area and thus knows the area at the back of their hands. This is the advantage they have now. With their familiarity of the terrain and the decent skill level of the 2 extras, the “gamble” that Keisha mentioned therefore do not exist.

4th panel: The blue line I’ve drawn refers to the possible river branch that Shin do not know of and it flows straight into the heart of Kanki’s territory.

军师妹纸与信,以及各个副将队长策划,夺取右翼的山丘。
这里观者,对于军师妹纸的表现,一定感觉不给力。
但是楼主这里要为军师妹纸说几句。

Ten, Shin and his lieutenants plans to recapture the hill at the right wing.
I am sure that readers will find her priority to recapture the hill to be wrong.
However, I want to defend her here.

请看图,假设右翼山丘真的被敌军占领会是什么后果。
红色代表信军
黄色代表恒骑军
绿色代表土著的纪慧军
蓝色代表庆舍军
1 信假设不管右翼山丘,信的即使突前作战,立马将变成两线作战,
既要与上方敌人作战,背后要受到来自右翼山丘敌军的有如汉堡一般的两片面包的夹击,这是军师妹纸不想看到的结果。

2 粮草不济,一旦作战变成持久战,信的大队人马,立马没有粮草的保障,为何?
送粮原本可以太平的直线送达,结果山丘上的敌军成为大后方的不稳定因素。

3 同时,右翼的山丘真的是占领,对于恒骑军的作战也是极为不利的,军队可以直达左侧的敌军后后方的敌军。

As we can see from the map, what will happen if the hill on at the right wing is captured.
Red=Shin and co.
Yellow=Kanki’s army
Green=The native Kisui army
Blue=Keisha’s army
1. If Shin ignore the right hill and marches forward, he will be fighting enemies from 2 sides. He will have to deal with enemies from the front as well as enemies from the captured hill, which creates a pincer attack, something that Ten do not want to see.
2. Lack of supplies. If the battle drags on, Shin and co. will not have sufficient supplies. Why is this so? With the enemies controlling the hill behind them, the supply cannot safely reach Shin and co. who are fighting at the front lines.
3. At the same time, if the right hill is really captured, it will be at a great disadvantage to Kanki as the enemies can reach Kanki’s far back easily.

4 这个右翼山丘,正如军师妹纸的想法一样,
如果大部队集结在山丘上,要攻克就变得困难,即使要攻克下来,也要付出相当大的代价。
楼主在444话分析已经明确说了,军师妹纸也与楼主不谋而合。
山丘是压制敌人的最高地形地物。
只有双方进行争斗时,才会出现制高点,占有制高点的一方有制胜的把握,
因为这样可以在山丘上进行自上而下的射箭防守,并且敌方向上攀爬山丘作战,等于是一场劳心劳力的攻城作战,对于攻山方是不利的。

所以军师妹纸才会安排大军在阵前吆喝佯攻吸引山丘的敌军射箭,信则带领小股突击部队绕后作战。

4. Just like what Ten said about the right hill, if the hill is captured and enemy reinforcements arrive, recapturing the hill would be hard and not without bloodshed.
I’ve mentioned this in my analysis in Ch444 and Ten agrees with me.
The hill is a terrain that can pin down the enemy.
It is only when 2 armies clash that a high point will become significant and whoever controls the high point will have a good chance of winning. This is because this they can fire arrows at approaching enemies who are climbing the hill and the hill climbing takes a lot out of the enemies, which is a huge disadvantage to the attackers.
This is why Ten wanted the bulk of the men to attract attention so that they can draw the arrows away from the small platoon who are attacking from the other side of the hill.

5 此战,缺点就在于信和军师妹纸是不太了解整个作战区域的地形细节,
同时军师妹纸的性格不是那种出奇谋,走险招的人。
军师妹纸更多的是喜欢稳扎稳打的战斗,见招拆招,又或者是中规中矩的谋划。

早年军师妹纸第一次以信的军师身份出战作出谋略之时,她曾内心独白过:军师的每个的计策,都关系到有血有肉的士兵的生命安危,这和在沙盘棋盘上的谋划是不一样的。
她将信队看做家人,所以不能有过多的牺牲,亦或是敌伤1000,自损800的险招。
对于地形不熟的问题,军师妹纸只能中规中矩的让信安排羌妹纸先行探路,这对于军师妹纸在这次的密林作战也只能是唯一的选择了。

至此,军师妹纸虽然中计了,但是这是她的性格使然,是她折中又安稳的想法。
所以楼主不会对军师妹纸予以失望,希望继续加油吧。

In this battle, the problem lies in the fact that Shin and Ten are not familiar with the terrain of the area.
Ten’s character is also not the type who will try risky or unorthodox strategies.
She is more of a down to earth strategy who go by the book, countering enemy’s strategies along the way.
In her early days with Shin, when Ten first took command of HSU as a strategist, she had thought about the fact that every decision that a strategist makes will determine the life and death of many soldiers and this is different from the chess pieces on a chess board.
She treats HSU as her family and therefore do not want to sacrifice too many men with strategies that might kill 1000 enemies but at the same time, also kill 800 of her own men.
As for the unfamiliarity of the terrain, the only solution is for Kyokai to scout ahead.

经验包之一,战力已经很明显,不是信的对手,其人还有点自大。
何以见得?

他拿出的参照物,乃是亲友团成员刘冬,
嘴里说道,即使是刘冬也挡不住这战斧。
可见常年参与守护的工作,并没有与外敌常年战斗单挑,
对于参照物也只能选择刘冬了。
井底之蛙,小范围得手竟然自鸣得意起来。

Panel 1: Extra no.1, it is obvious that his strenght do not match Shin’s and he seems to be a braggart too.
Why is this so?
Panel 2: He compares Shin to Ryuutou, who is a close ally of his.
He mentioned that even Ryuutou cannot block his axe.
We can see that he spent most of his time defending the area and rarely encounter any enemies or had many duels.
Therefore, his only use Ryuutou as a reference.
He is just a frog living in the bottom of a well, he gained only a small advantage and he starts bragging about it.

羌妹纸在群山看到了意想不到的东西。
这东西是什么呢?
楼主斗胆猜测。
在群山中最有可能意想不到的是—–“船队”
因为群山里看到大船应该是很意想不到的事情。

庆舍军和纪慧军在密林的主要河流上,筑起了对岸防线。

同时在河流上有船队的身影,为何呢?

在444话,纪慧军已然有小舟通过支流深入敌后。
必定对此战是做好船只准备的,通过大河道,将船航行至此。

当信渡河之时,对信军攻击。
抑或是,
击敌半渡,在信军渡过了一半人已击杀。
而船对信军的另一半则在河中进行攻击。
古代打仗非常讲究阵型,那么多人,阵型一散,再也组织不起有效反击了,而渡河时一般阵型都会散乱,正是攻击的好时候。

至此在密林作战中通过水战,让信军首尾无暇,或者阻隔信军与河对岸。
希望,楼主的斗胆猜测,漫画作者不要给予楼主以会心一击,让楼主脸肿的厉害。

Panel 1: So what did Kyokai see?
I will make a wild guess.
The last thing one would expect to find in a forest is a fleet of ships.
Finding huge ships within a forest is definitely not something one would expect.
Panel 2: Keisha and Kisui must have built defenses along the river banks with ships and boats on the river itself. Why is this so?
Panel 3: In Ch444, Kisui’s men already used small boats to infiltrate the enemy territory through the river branch. He must have prepared a fleet before the battle and sent them into battlefield through the bigger river channels.
Panel 4: When Shin and co. cross the river, he will attack them or when half of them made it across the river, he will kill those on the shore and those still crossing the river with his land and river troops.
In ancient times, it is all about formation. When a formation breaks, it is impossible for them to regroup and counter attack. When an army crosses a river, their formation is bound to break and this is the perfect time to attack.
With this, the enemies plan to stop Shin’s advance and retreat through the usage of naval battles, or stop Shin entirely from crossing the river at all.
And so, I hope that my wild guess would not make the author give me a good smack in the face and cause my face to swell.
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4 thoughts on “Analysis of Ch445 and Ch446 by 蜡笔大大大象

      • I thought it was all a trick to make Shin’s army waste their time recapturing the hill and thus Zhou will have easier time to capture the middle hill without any resistance from Shin army

        Kanki (or his strategist) did warn him to avoid any battle and go straight further to the middle hill. That nearest hill should be easily captured back by Kanki’s main army because there will be no supply/reinforcement from the Main Zhou army

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  1. I’ve got mitigate feeling about this analysis , but the last point is just no. Let’s talk about the mighty Zhao fleet with all the harbour and maritime trade they must be doing…
    They don’t even have a lake in their territory, why would they have a fleet. At best they have transport ship but that nowhere near enough to call that a fleet the only water they got in their territory is the yellow river so I don’t believe in a fleet, especially in the middle of the forest where they would have no way to maneuver.
    No, I believe what Kyoukai found is some kind of weakness to turn the tide, I will take no guess of what it is probably not the headquarter or anything related to keisha , maybe she find the ship , maybe she find destroyed Raido unit ect.

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